As an intense crisis has swept throughout Yemen, the security forces of President Ali Abdullah Saleh are brutally oppressing the protesters. According to the rights groups, hundreds of Yemeni citizens have been killed during the popular antigovernment protests, among them 52 on a Friday which has marked the bloodiest day of the uprising so far. In the meantime, the world society has mostly adopted silence toward crimes committed by Saleh and his government. It has merely sufficed to warn Yemeni regime in some occasions.
Yemen is one of the poorest countries and its government is one of the most corrupt in the world. The critical economic situation caused by mismanagement and embezzled oil revenues has pressed people and the increasing number of unemployed young people has all added fuel to the uprising. The protests were first staged by students and the youth, but eventually extended to include all opposing groups and factions.
Saleh took power in 1978 as the President of North Yemen. After the unification of North Yemen with former communist Soviet oriented South Yemen, and later a civil war in 1994, Saleh became the so-called president of the unified Yemen.
Saleh tried to negotiate his way out of the protests, offering to form a "unity government" and proposing a committee to overhaul the constitution. Opposition groups dismissed Saleh's offer as a "waste of time," Al Jazeera reported.
Weeks later, he went a little further, offering to step down by the end of the year and promising to hand power to a civilian government. The opposition rejected that offer, too, holding out for a more immediate resignation.
Following is an interview with Mohammad Farazmand an expert of Arab world about the latest developments in Yemen.
Earlier Yemeni protesters were called as the opponents of Ali Abdullah Saleh, but lately reports are specifically on the conflict between various tribes in the country. What's the reason behind this? Is there any possibility that a civil war is ensued in the country?
The revolution of Yemen has reached to a critical and perilous stage. Ali Abdullah Saleh resisted the widespread protests of people which were held everyday for four months and maneuvered to reduce the heat and keep his post, but later as it was expected tried to transform Yemeni revolution into a civil war. As you know Yemeni people are armed, actually Yemen's interior ministry estimates that there are about 60 million firearms are in the hands of people.
So was an attack launched by some tribes almost a week ago in line with armed struggle against Saleh's forces?
It seems that Ali Abdullah Saleh has picked a shrewd method for provoking a civil war in the country. By waging a war against one of the factions of Hashed which is Yemen's biggest tribal confederation including Saleh's own tribe, he tries to show the world that the conflict in Yemen is tribal and has been occurred simply between two factions of the Hashed.
You see Yemen is a tribal society and its demographic structure is influenced by tribal divisions. As I said before the Hashed is Yemen's biggest collective tribe and includes Saleh's own tribe, but from the early days of protests, Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar, leader of the Hashed joined the protesters and called on the president to resign. Also a large portion of forces of this tribe reunited with Saleh opponents. Sadeq al-Ahmar made a statement which was signed by several religious leaders as well, those who called on soldiers to disobey any order to shoot at demonstrators. Like others, the members of the Hashed tribe are armed as well. Nearly a week ago when the heads of various factions of Hashed tribal confederation were gathered in the house of Sadeq al-Ahmar, Yemeni security forces and army carried out a mortar attack on the house and a number of attendants were killed. Naturally the armed Hashed retaliated the attack. They raided some governmental buildings and ministries and occupied them.
Taking advantage of the situation, Ali Abdullah Saleh turned Sanaa into a war zone as many settlers have escaped the city for the fear of the civil war extension. However I predict that due a strong pressure put on the regime by the young revolutionaries and protesters seeking to follow peaceful demonstrations, Saleh's tactic is doomed to fail.
It is being said that the number of Ali Abdullah Saleh's supporters particularly in Sanaa are also high.
From the beginning of the protests in February, people have not left streets and their demonstrations are not simply limited to Sanaa and the major cities of Yemen but have swept throughout the country and even are staged in the villages.
Through engineering some demonstrations held in specific days, Saleh aims to make believe that he is still enjoys the support of a portion of Yemeni citizens. But if we take his step by step pullbacks during the last four months into account, we realize that even Saleh himself believes that he has not a chance for survival in the scene of power. The only issue at stake is how he should back down to eschew a fate similar to that of Hosni Mubarak who was acused of war crimes and was put on trial.
To crush his opponents, Saleh carried out air raids against them. Is the intervention of the United Nations possible (like the case of Libya) If he follows launching such attacks?
Unfortunately in the case of Yemen like that of Bahrain we are witnessing the West's double standard. On the issue of Yemen like Bahrain, the West powers do not insist on the rapid victory of Yemeni revolution. Due to the fact that during his almost 32 years of ruling, Saleh has served the United States a lot by controlling Al Qaeda activities and Salafi faction of Yemen [Salafis are the followers of an Islamic movement that take the Salaf, early Muslim of the first three generations of proponents of the religion who lived during the patristic period of early Islam, as model examples]. He has set himself as one of the combatant Arab leaders in the frontlines of fighting against Al Qaeda. From one hand, he has not assigned any alternative to succeed him, on the other Yemeni army has not the potential and ability of Egyptian army to control the crisis and transit the power to other authorities after Saleh.
So the US statesmen are absolutely cautious in handling the case of Saleh. Such caution as well as the double standards of the United States on the issue of Yemen has stimulated Saleh to thwart all mediatory and peaceful plans for the transition of power steadfastly, and uses various means to sustain his position and deceive people.
Recently Saleh hold a meeting with the US officials. Has the issues of his discussion with them revealed, and basically what developments the Americans are seeking in Yemen?
From the time the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was tasked with peaceful transition of power in Yemen, the US officials were informed about the negotiations between Saleh and Yemeni parties and were indirectly involved in their meetings.
But unfortunately due to the relations of Saleh regime with Saudi Arabia, and the concerns of the latter for the possible threats after the overthrow of Saleh, Saudi Arabia began intervening in the events. Because of Saudi's inept diplomacy, the mediatory efforts made for the transition of power in Yemen have been fruitless. Supposedly in their negotiations with Saleh, the Americans are exploring a formula for his peaceful dismissal. They want the protesters and international organizations to guarantee he will quit in return for immunity against prosecution.
What's your prediction of Yemen's future?
The era of Ali Abdullah Saleh has come to an end and even now Yemen is in post-Saleh times. He will surely quit but it may take time.
Regarding the tribal context of Yemeni society, the future of democracy in the country is threatened by the rivalry, challenges and conflict between the tribes on their share of power. Armed struggle as a result of tribal rivalry is one of the crucial challenges Yamen will face after the transition of power.
The Zaidis in the north of Yemen have always been in dispute with the central government [they had dominated politics and cultural life in northern Yemen for centuries; with unification, and the addition of the south's almost totally Shafi'i population, the numerical balance has shifted dramatically away from the Zaidis]. On the other hand, the South Yemenis are frustrated since they have not taken any advantage of the United Yemen experience. Salafi tendencies are also exist in the country, but above all Yemen is one of the basements of Al Qaeda.
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